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Icarus Signals. The home of economic insight
Sunday, 2 April 2023

Tags: US Economy

Morgan Stanley: This Cycle Will Burn “Hotter And Shorter” So Start Thinking About Rotating Out Of Early-Cycle Winners

Posted on March 24, 2021 by TeamIcarus | 0 Comments
Our experience informs our beliefs. The last four US economic expansions have been unusually long, ranked by the NBER as the first, second, third and sixth longest among 34 business cycles…
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‘Markets Be Damned!’: US Fed Standing Firm On Inflation Fears

Posted on March 16, 2021 by TeamIcarus | 0 Comments
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell is unlikely to waver on maintaining stimulus policies despite market inflation fears.
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The “Wait And See” Economy’s Moment Of Truth

Posted on March 13, 2021 by TeamIcarus | 0 Comments
The "wait and see" economy is about to face its moment of truth, and one truth is the $1.9 trillion being passed out like candy is already spent.
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How Trump’s Tariffs Really Affected the U.S. Job Market

Posted on March 2, 2021 by TeamIcarus | 0 Comments
A recent study on U.S.-China trade concludes that Trump’s trade policies cost the U.S. economy nearly a quarter million jobs. But its obsolete understanding of trade flows ends up pointing…
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Monetary Policy in a Pandemic

Posted on February 19, 2021 by TeamIcarus | 0 Comments
A year ago, the U.S. economy was humming along like a well-oiled machine. Annualized real gross domestic product (GDP) per capita stood at $58,490 in 2019-Q4.
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How Trump’s Tariffs Really Affected the U.S. Job Market

Posted on February 2, 2021 by TeamIcarus | 0 Comments
A recent study on U.S.-China trade concludes that Trump’s trade policies cost the U.S. economy nearly a quarter million jobs. But its obsolete understanding of trade flows ends up pointing…
Read more »

Stocks Could Plunge Even If The Economy Booms

Posted on January 21, 2021 by TeamIcarus | 0 Comments
Can we face a bear market even if the economy booms? Yes, but it would be rare.
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From The Land Of Financial Bubbles

Posted on January 19, 2021 by TeamIcarus | 0 Comments
Everywhere we look, the world looks bubbly.
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Consumer Spending and the COVID-19 Pandemic

Posted on January 17, 2021 by TeamIcarus | 0 Comments
At the start of 2020, the COVID-19 epidemic reached global proportions and became a pandemic.
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Business Confidence, Big and Small, 2004-present

Posted on January 17, 2021 by TeamIcarus | 0 Comments
As part of a larger study, I’ve generated time series of small and big business confidence since 2004.
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