A Matter of Probabilities

Was it Michigan that had a big chunk of votes, 136,000, that came in where every. single. one. was for Biden and none for Trump or any of the other candidates on that ballot? An excuse I heard given was they were mail in ballots and Democrats were more likely to vote by mail than Republicans.

Really? That’s the excuse?

Well, as a physicist I do know a thing or two about numbers and probability. Let’s say that about 40 percent of the electorate were Trump voters (steel man argument–assume that he really, truly would lose that race without shenanigans). Now, let’s further say that Trump voters are 1000 times less likely than Biden voters to vote by mail. And let’s just discount the minor party candidates, again, steelmanning as including them would actually weaken the explanation for the big bolus of Biden (only) ballots. That means that any random mail ballot would be 99,96% likely to be a Biden vote and only 0.04% likely to be a Trump vote. Read more…..


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